WORK FROM HOME IS DEAD. MAYBE. WELL, THERE'S A BATTLE FOR ITS FUTURE.
WFH mandates have been gone for over a week - but working from home (likely) won’t die out, despite bosses and landlords wanting it to. Here’s why that’s the case…
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It’s been more than a week since the Prime Minister scrapped work-from-home measures - which means we’re back in the office, right? And not just because our bosses are chomping at the bit to see our faces in person again - see: sending pointed emails telling us playtime is over and we need to get back to full productivity at our lovely (see: expensive central London) desks that they’re paying for - but because our Prime Minister is so good at setting rules, telling us what they are, and then acting as a shining example of how we should follow them, right? Right? RIGHT?!?!?!
Broadsides at Johnson aside, the end of work-from-home guidance hasn’t actually killed off working from home. Obviously this is the case - some of you are likely reading this during work time at home - but that’s not to say bosses, or quite a few other interested parties, are happy with this. Below is a run through of why.
BOSSES WANT US BACK IN
He of bouffant-haired infamy*, Pimlico Plumbers founder Charlie Mullins, has said multiple times that he’s no fan of remote work whilst big banking boss James Gorman, Chairman and CEO of Morgan Stanley, was calling for an end to working from home months before it was more widely popular to try and lure workers back in.
Additionally, Citigroup recently emailed staff in order to get them to come in at least three days a week (before promising to splash out £100m on sprucing up their Canary Wharf quarters (i.e. they’re doubling down on working from a central location being the future). In fact, in the case of Citi, they are arguing that telling workers to schlep in via whichever-mode-of-transport-they-take-to-work at whatever-godforsaken-early-time for specific-work-hours is good for both their freedom and energy. (Yes, seriously, that’s the message from David Livingstone, CEO EMEA at Citi, when sharing his reasoning for for telling staff to get back to their desks in an all-office email; a pretty hefty indication Citi are on a hearts-and-minds campaign, attempting to appeal to important elements (more freedom, better work-life balance) that workers are saying, in greater numbers, they want their employers to provide).
But it’s not just very public names and big brands that are on this get-back-to-office drive. In fact, over in the US, a whopping 72% of managers, who look after remote workers, would prefer all their subordinates to be in the office, according to research for the Society for Human Resource Management. A pretty telling stat.
THE GOVERNMENT ALSO SAYS: ‘GET BACK TO YER WOVEN-FABRIC OFFICE CHAIR’
It’s not just bosses who are happy that the WFH mandate is RIP. It appears that the government also - again, perhaps obviously - are big fans of being able to end their work-from-home guidance. In fact, Boris Johnson was telling us as early as September 2020 that it was “quite right” that people were returning to the office, just after the first round of lockdown and restrictions had ended. It's a topic on which he went into further detail when talking at the Conservative Party conference last year, adding that he perceived there were many benefits to in-office work.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak also spoke, in early 2021, about the communication, creativity and work culture benefits that he believes co-located working brings - noting that none of us can “beat the spontaneity” the office brings. Furthermore, the second-most senior member of the cabinet, Steve Barclay, is currently running a press release blitz encouraging the civil service to get bums back on woven-fabric desk chair seats as soon as possible, as some form of example to get the rest of us to follow. There were even rumours of a late-2020 get-back-to-work media campaign, although that never materialised. All in all, painting a picture of a government desperate to get us back to where most white collar employees used to work before 2020: the office.
Y’KNOW WHAT? SOME WORKERS WANT BACK, TOO
And whilst some of the attempts to encourage workers back, to partake in that office joie de vivre Sunak-esque spontaneity, will have fallen on deaf ears - as early in the pandemic as summer 2020, nine in 10 workers were saying they’d like home working to continue in some form - there are those who, for very valid and obvious reasons, want to get back into some form of office-work routine.
Although worketc takes stats from this recent survey, which *found* that just as many workers want to be back in the office as working from home and that circa half want to be in full time, with a pinch of salt - it’s from an office management company, seems like they have a stake in offices working continuing in a form close to it they did pre-2020 - there are those want the sanctuary of the office, and the development and networking opportunities it can provide, for reasons that make clear sense.
In fact, over half of staff aged 21-30 want some form of in-person working (driven by learning and networking needs) whilst there are those who live in less-than-ideal home-work situations (consider multi-occupancy housing, which is how a significant number of people live in cities, or the rocketing rise in domestic violence in lockdown/work-from-home mandate periods) and those that simply want to be in-person for social, collaborative or shared culture reasons. Good reasons for wanting to be back.
AND THOSE WHO HAVE MULTI-MULTI-MILLION/BILLION COMMERCIAL PROPERTY LIABILITIES ARE CRYING/MOANING/CLAWING AT THE HEM OF YOUR SUIT TROUSERS TO GET YOU BACK
And we can’t forget commercial landlords, they definitely want in-office working to return. Again for obvious reasons: during periods of mandated work-from-home/lockdown/pandemic peaks, according to Morgan Stanley statistics, those who owned office and retail spaces lost up to six per cent of the rental value as well as dealing with reduced ability of incumbent tenants to pay and worries regarding getting other tenants to replace them.
These landlords are often joined by companies with massive real estate liabilities/assets (delete as appropriate) like Apple - who entered into a late-2021 war with workers over a mandated office return, a return that has now been delayed ad infinitum, and whose bosses were definitely aware of the need to make use of their £3billion campus during this well-documented executive-employee falling out - who have made it clear they want staff back in. (This want for an office return by those with very-real commercial space liabilities is exemplified in its most desperate and angry form by a) office space owners offering business rentiers anything, literally, anything to come back - free karaoke, wine, virtual golf, food, and, erm, honey - and b) commercial landlord Alan Sugar barking on Twitter about home workers being ‘complacent’.)
YET IT MIGHT NOT WORK OUT AS THEY WANT…
However, whilst some forms of in-office working will return - and for those who really need it to: in order to progress, to learn, to escape less-than-good living conditions, that is a good thing - worketc has pulled together two lists that showcase it might not be happening, at least not in a total form, at least not in the ways that some bosses, government ministers and landlords might want. These lists are split into short-term indicators and long-term reasons and are as follows:
SOME SHORT TERM INDICATORS THAT FULL-TIME BACK-TO-OFFICE WORKING IS OFF THE MENU
Workers feel getting back to an office is an absolute slog
The above attitude to commuting back in looks like it is born out by official stats. Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures show that, despite Transport for London numbers indicating that since the work-from-home guidance has dropped there has been a rise in passengers on its services, usage of all modes of transport is down from what would be considered pre-pandemic normal usage i.e. the majority of people aren’t rushing back to the office.
That said, this ONS figure could be lower at the moment because a) there are still a lot of people who are isolating with Covid b) bosses aren’t rushing back-to-office plans just yet whilst the hyper-transmissible Omicron variant is still circulating, or they don’t have a clear plan for their future-of-work structures yet c) workers who can work from their office now guidelines have ended are either reticent, with so many daily cases of Covid still going around, or haven’t found/able to use a support structure that can allow them to return to the office work yet, such a long-term childcare plans for young children.
More on commuting: research in the Journal of Transport & Health found that commuting hits stress levels and fatigue - who would’ve guessed that! - and impacts quality of care that parents are able to give to children. It likely follows, therefore, that those who are given the option to in any way reduce this - say, via being able to work at least time remotely - might do so.
Very new research from Slack has shown that one in six workers want to quit because of enforced office returns. For switched-on employers, this will be a statistic of significant concern, and might precipitate thoughts around making work, in part at least, non-office based going forward. (Although worketc should point out that Slack, one of the most-used tools for remote work, obviously stands to gain for office work becoming a relic of a bygone time).
The wider context which backdrops the new Slack study, the ongoing great resignation/hiring difficulty struggle, suggests that bosses who are aware of office reticence might want to meet workers half way and offer more flexibility around where work takes place…
…but largely, employees don’t trust their bosses to make the right call about the future of work. A study of US workers shows they don’t trust their superiors about when to make the right call re the office return. Again: bosses who are both aware and concerned by this chasm, between themselves and the workforce, will likely want to try and rectify by creating work structures more along the lines of what employers want.
Big names are postponing office return mandates indefinitely. See: Apple. This makes headlines and other employers make note of what their policies are, their impact, and make their decisions accordingly.
All in all, especially the commuting figures, this indicates that there is no employee or employer rush - or at least significant reticence - about returning to the office right away. But, could it come back for the long term? Well….
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SIGNS THAT FULL-TIME OFFICE WORKING IS LARGELY OFF THE AGENDA FOR THE LONG TERM
Workers don't want a full-time office return. Remember that early-pandemic study, that worketc referenced earlier in this article, about how much the workforce wanted remote work to continue; that figure is still fairly high. BBC numbers from the end of 2021 suggest that the majority of workers want to work from home some or all of the time going forward and “WOULD NEVER RETURN TO OFFICES AT THE SAME RATE [as before the pandemic]”.
Why does this matter? Well, on an employment landscape where, at least in some areas, a changed employer-employee dynamic has given some employees more power to choose and dictate terms and preferences than they did prior to the pandemic, to keep/attract these employees, employers, again, in some areas, are fighting to deliver on this. Ergo: some will be delivering hybrid/remote working to create structures which are more enticing to workers.
2021 LinkedIn data shows that the number of new jobs offering remote work is rising. At the time, Becky Schnauffer, Senior Director at LinkedIn, said: “Job adverts for remote roles are booming – a signal that a more flexible approach to work is here to stay for the foreseeable future.”
A significant number of businesses are already planning a hybrid work future. There is much discrepancy in the figures here - probably due to unsure thinking in this area and no set definition or actualisation of what hybrid means - but one survey of 500 business leaders found over eight in 10 had plans for remote, flexible or hybrid work after the pandemic. Another poll, by Willis Towers Watson, found that two in five employers will have adopted hybrid working by 2023 with only 30% saying that they expect to have all their workforce back on site by that date.
Companies are literally investing a huge amount of money in their employees’ remote work set-ups. Apple, Deloitte and Google have all done, or are doing, this.
Oh, and some big name brands are saying WFH is forever. Twitter and Square have made past comments which hint that they are thinking about this. With their outsized impact on the market, others might follow if they post good HR stats (retention, attrition, engagement, recruitment) as well as good financial outcomes. Either that, or firms who have gone fully flexible or remote start to hoover up in-demand top talent at even greater rates.
Businesses are hiring ‘Chief Remote Officers’ to oversee transitions and practices in a remote world - hardly an indication remote work is about to be dispensed with. GitLab - mentioned previously in worketc articles - one of the first, bigger companies to be completely remote have a lot of writing in their company manual about the importance of hiring for this role.
On a landscape with many macro uncertainties - read PwC’s 24th CEO report to understand more - it makes sense that bosses would want to cut real estate, as well as adjacent (energy, internet etc) costs, in order to be leaner in the face of future challenges.
Bosses don’t like sick workers and they’re the ones who get to dictate remote work policies. Well, remote work periods - in the 1970s, during the OPEC oil embargo, and during 2020 - saw less workers take sick leave. What might that indicate?
In-the-loop bosses looking for gains in an economy that has struggled with productivity - the UK’s productivity levels have been sluggish for a decade - will surely be interested by multiple studies linking WFH or WFA (work from anywhere) policies to productivity boosts.
Talent tight market meets increased demand on employers to deliver for employees on everything from life purpose to work-life balance, will see some considering WFA approaches in order to keep/attract in-demand talent (as WFH linked much more with better work-life balance).
One company, ahead of the curve when it came to WFH experimentation, jumped to the top of a Best Places to Work metric when it rolled out remote work. This was the United States Patent and Trademark Office in 2013. With engaged and happy workers usually driving a better employer brand - increasing chances to attract top talent in the difficult hiring market - many organisations might be wanting to take note in order to replicate.
SO, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
What both of these lists do is demonstrate that despite a government recommended or mandated work-from-home policy no longer existing, WFH is, in some form, going to play a large part in the future of work. In fact, there’s an entire industry already symbiotically growing around it: to offer consultancy, tools and expertise on how to do it best. (Usually a good sign that something is a *genuine thing* is when the consultants get in on the act).
Yet, it’s not just the growth of reporting on and consulting for remote work that are indications that it’s around to stay. Changed life patterns, worker demands, reticence to shift back, the ongoing pandemic, as well as bigger evolutions around technology and hiring difficulties, all play their part. We can see this having an impact in real time: it’s borne out by lower commuting figures, the number of employers advertising remote jobs, and hiring for leaders to oversee their remote environments.
But this is nothing that is very new. In many ways this form of working has been fairly mainstream since the start of the pandemic - in April 2020, nearly half of people in employment worked remotely. What will be interesting is where it goes next with so many opposed to working from anywhere, working from home and working remotely and so many in favour of being to work from whatever environment they choose and others experimenting (or researching) on the best way to do it, as well as stats showing that working in more flexible manners holds very alluring benefits for many businesses and employees. Ergo: watch this space.
* The ‘why is Charlie Mullins infamous’ question sparks many answers. All of them are right. For a quick run through of others, please see: phoning the This Morning programme to call furloughed workers lazy whilst sunning himself from his holiday home in Spain; ending his use of the Government’s furlough scheme before it finished and firing employees who wanted to stay on it; saying that remote workers were as bad as benefits cheats; and, finally, inspiring the Equality and Human Rights Commission to finance a legal case against him, as he argued about the definition of what constitutes a worker (rulings in this case subsequently used against Uber and Deliveroo).